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Beauty’s Holiday Outlook is Bright and Merry

Sephora Holiday stand

By Faye Brookman

Sephora Holiday stand

Beauty is having a good holiday season—even if other categories are flat as shoppers pinch pockets.

Based on leading industry prognosticators and store visits, consumers are putting makeup, skin care, fragrances, and other beauty-related items into their baskets. The consensus is beauty is an affordable treat and overall an uplifting gift.

Both Black Friday and Super Saturday were good days for physical stores and beauty. According to the National Retail Federation, shopping traffic was the highest figure the organization has ever tracked since it began monitoring shopping behavior in 2017.  NPD data reported that prestige beauty posted growth in the mid-single digits during Black Friday week (ending November 26) for both dollars and units.

Visits to physical stores on Super Saturday (Dec. 17) were up 17% from the previous Saturday (Dec. 10) and up 36% from Dec. 3, according to shopper traffic data from Sensormatic Solutions. Shopper traffic on Super Saturday was up 0.2% compared to 2021. Just prior to the big shopping day, the NRF predicted that 158 million consumers would shop on Super Saturday, the highest number since NRF first started tracking this data in 2016.

The bright spot? Beauty—it was the only industry tracked by NPD where revenue and unit sales both increased during Black Friday week compared to each of the three previous years.

Beauty performed well based on store observations and expert opinions. “Prestige beauty posted growth in the mid-single digits for both dollars and units. While this growth is more tempered than what we have seen throughout the year, we are up against some pretty spectacular numbers, so I call this a huge win,” said Larissa Jensen, vice president, Beauty Industry Advisor at The NPD Group.

Although mass marketers like discount and drug stores are often last-minute stops, results from NielsenIQ revealed personal care and beauty was the fourth most shopped category, behind clothing, electronics and toys.

Store checks gave the early nod to prestige beauty with the theory if you can’t buy expensive clothing, pick up the best name in cosmetics and fragrances. Sephora favorites included anything Charlotte Tilbury, Rare Beauty, the emerging clean brand Freck, and Huda palettes. Several Target stores were shopped clean of buy two, get three promotions. Ashley Tisdale’s Being Frenshe was also a shopper favorite. Fragrance sales were big winners on Super Saturday, retailers reported. The biggest brands included Gucci, Good Girl, and Dior.

The beauty shops within store formats appeared to gain traction this year at Target and Kohl’s, according to Placer.ai’s analysts. “The experience of Ulta and Sephora shows how brands can benefit from partnerships with other venues to increase their reach. Far from cannibalizing existing sales, shop-in-shops can increase brand awareness and actually drive more customers to full-size stores,” the tracking company said in a release.

Younger customers, or gifts for that cohort, are also driving beauty’s growth. “From its obsession with skin care products to its affinity for parting hair down the middle, Gen-Z will likely continue to be a driving force in the beauty industry for years to come. Leaning into the things that are important to this demographic – from sustainability to inclusivity and ethical business practices – will be an important strategy for brands seeking to increase market share,” Placer. ai reported.

Predictions are that when the final numbers are crunched, beauty will be a big winner this holiday season with strong tailwinds that will keep the business growing in 2023. While prestige is leading gains now, the next year could bring some trade-off to mass brands, especially as those retailers up the game. But it looks like there just might be enough demand to go all around.

ABOUT FAYE BROOKMAN

Faye Brookman has reported on the beauty and personal care industry for more than 35 years. faye_brookman_blogShe contributes to beauty industry publications including Women’s Wear Daily and CEW Beauty News. Her articles have also appeared in USA TodayThe Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post. She also is a frequent moderator for discussions of the beauty business and retail industry.

A graduate of Syracuse University’s S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications, Brookman resides in Skillman, N.J.

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